Pre-Mortem Analysis for Critical Decisions

I'm planning to [describe your decision or project]. Before I fully commit, help me conduct a thorough pre-mortem analysis to identify potential points of failure and strengthen my approach.

Assume it's one year in the future and this decision/project has failed completely. Create a detailed pre-mortem analysis with the following components:

1. FAILURE SCENARIO:
- Write a detailed narrative of what the failure looks like
- Describe the key negative outcomes and consequences
- Outline the critical indicators that show this has truly failed

2. ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS:
- Identify at least 7 distinct possible causes of failure, including:
a) Internal execution failures
b) External/market factors
c) Resource constraints
d) Timing issues
e) People/team challenges
f) Unexpected competitive responses
g) Fundamentally flawed assumptions

3. PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT:
- For each failure cause, estimate the relative probability (high/medium/low)
- Which failure modes are most concerning and why?
- Are there any compounding or cascading failure risks?

4. EARLY WARNING SIGNALS:
- What specific, measurable indicators would provide early warning for each failure mode?
- What thresholds or trigger points should prompt intervention?
- How and when should these warning signals be monitored?

5. PREVENTATIVE MEASURES:
- For each major failure risk, what specific preventative actions could be taken now?
- Which adjustments to the original plan would create the most resilience?
- What contingency plans should be developed in advance?

6. RISK MITIGATION PRIORITIZATION:
- Which 3-5 preventative measures would provide the greatest reduction in overall risk?
- What is the appropriate resource allocation for risk mitigation?
- Are there any risks that simply cannot be adequately mitigated?

7. REVISED APPROACH:
- Based on this pre-mortem, should I proceed with the decision/project?
- If yes, what specific changes to the approach do you recommend?
- If no, what alternatives might achieve similar objectives with less risk?

Be brutally honest in your assessment while maintaining a constructive approach. The goal is to strengthen my decision/plan or reconsider it if the risks are too great.