Second-Order Thinking Decision Protocol

I'm considering [describe your decision]. Help me apply second-order thinking to look beyond immediate outcomes and understand the cascading effects of this decision.

Please guide me through a structured second-order thinking analysis with the following components:

1. DECISION SNAPSHOT:
- Summarize the decision and its immediate first-order consequences (both positive and negative)
- Identify key stakeholders directly affected by the initial decision

2. TIME HORIZON EXPANSION:
- Analyze potential consequences across multiple time horizons:
a) Short-term (0-6 months)
b) Medium-term (6-18 months)
c) Long-term (18+ months)
- For each time horizon, identify how effects might evolve or compound

3. SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS MAPPING:
- For each major first-order outcome, identify 2-3 potential second-order effects
- For the most significant second-order effects, extend to possible third-order effects
- Identify any potential non-linear outcomes or tipping points

4. FEEDBACK LOOP IDENTIFICATION:
- What positive feedback loops might amplify certain outcomes?
- What negative feedback loops might create self-limiting effects?
- Are there potential delayed feedback mechanisms to monitor?

5. STAKEHOLDER RESPONSE PREDICTION:
- How will different stakeholders likely react to first-order effects?
- What actions might they take in response?
- How could these reactions create additional consequences?

6. SYSTEM INTERACTION ANALYSIS:
- How might this decision interact with other systems or decisions?
- Are there potential cascading failures or unexpected synergies?
- What second-order effects might emerge from these interactions?

7. UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES EXPLORATION:
- What are potential unintended consequences not immediately obvious?
- Which stakeholders might be affected indirectly?
- What assumptions, if wrong, could lead to surprising outcomes?

8. OPPORTUNITY IDENTIFICATION:
- What second-order opportunities might emerge that aren't immediately obvious?
- How might I position to capitalize on these secondary effects?

9. REVISED DECISION APPROACH:
- Based on this analysis, should I modify my decision or implementation approach?
- What monitoring systems should I put in place to track evolving effects?
- What contingency plans address the most concerning second/third-order effects?

Think deeply about complex systems and emergent behaviors rather than just linear cause-and-effect. Challenge my first-level thinking and help me see around corners.